Saturday 19 April 2014

Leicester Vs QPR

Hi Folks,

With the season coming to a close in a few weeks time, it can be tricky picking matches, but with Leicester still wanting to win the title I think this one can be assessed.

Leicester's last 18 matches reads (W11D6L1). They have scored in 18/18 and conceded in 11/18. They have scored 36 goals and conceded 17 goals.
QPR's last 18 matches reads (W8D3L7). They have scored in 13/18 and conceded in 15/18. They have scored 28 goals and conceded 25 goals.
Leicester's last 6 matches reads (W2D3L1). They have scored in 6/6/ and conceded in 5/6. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 9 goals.
QPR's last 6 matches reads (W3D1L2). They have scored in 5/6 and concedede in 5/6. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 8 goals.
Leicester's last 12 home matches reads (W8D3L1). They have scored in 12/12 and conceded in 8/12. They have scored 28 goals and conceded 14 goals.
QPR's last 12 away matches reads (W4D1L7). They have scored in 5/12 and conceded in 9/12. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 15 goals.
Leicester have the best home record in the league with only 2 defeats all season and 1 of them was last week, which can be forgive considering they had just secured promotion.
QPR's away form is average for the season and they are 10th for away form.
Leicester have won 4 of their last 6 at home, drawing 1 and losing 1.They have scored in 6/6 and conceded in 4/6. They have scored 13 goals and conceded 7 goals.
QPR have won 2 of their last 6 away matches, drawing 0 and losing 4. They have scored in 3/6 and conceded in 5/6. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 10 goals.

The last 11H2H's read H4D2A5
At Leicester read H1D1A3

The grade analysis for Leicester reads (W8D1L3). They have scored in 10/12 and conceded in 7/12. They have scored 19 goals and conceded 11 goals.
The grade analysis for QPR reads (W0D3L1). They have scored in 1/4 and conceded in 2/4. They have scored 1 goal and conceded 3 goals.

The majority of stats are in Leicester's favour. The main concern is the H2H's and the graded analysis for QPR as they have drawn 3/4 against 'A' graded opposition.

Even so there looks to be value in LTD, as it should be 6.0..

So I will LTD in this one
I will also look to lay the HT score as I think it should be around 8.0 as there is a goal in the 2nd half of Leicesters home matches 92% of the time and a goal in the 2nd half of QPR's away matches 83.3% of the time

 



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