Liverpool Vs Man City

Well this is the biggest match of the season and although it may not decide the title it could go a long way to helping. Let's have a look at the stats

Liverpool's last 18 matches reads (W14D2L2). They have scored in 18/18 and conceded in 17/24. They have scored 56 goals and conceded 22 goals.
Man City's last 18 matches reads (W14D3L1). They have scored in 16/18 and conceded in 11/18. They have scored 47 goals and conceded 17 goals.
Liverpool's last 6 matches reads  (W6D0L0). They have scored in 6/6 and conceded in 3/6. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 5 goals.
Man City's last 6 matches reads (W5D1L0). They have scored in 6/6 and conceded in 2/6. They have scored 16 goals and conceded 2 goals.
Liverpool's last 12 home matches reads (W11D1L0). They have scored in 12/12 and conceded in 8/12. They have scored 43 goals and conceded 11 goals.
Man City's last 12 away matches reads (W7D3L2). They have scored in 10/12 and conceded in 8/12. They have scored 25 goals and conceded 12 goals.
 Liverpool have the second best home record
Liverpool have won  5 of their last 6 at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. They have scored in 6/6 and conceded in 4/6. They have scored 21 goals and conceded 7 goals.
Man City have won 4 of their last 6 away, drawing 2 and losing 0. They have scored in 5/6 and conceded in 2/6. They have scored 13 goals and conceded 2 goals.

The last 11H2H's read H2D6A3
At Liverpool reads H1D4A0

Man City have not won at Liverpool since 2002/2003 season.
There have been 10 draws in the last 25 meetings and 4 draws in the last 10 at Liverpool

The graded analysis for Liverpool reads (W3D3L3). They have scored in 8/9 and conceded in 8/9. They have scored 17 goals and conceded 13 goals.
The graded analysis for Man City reads (W4D2L3). They have scored in 7/9 and conceded in 7/9. They have scored 15 goals and conceded 11 goals.

This match is a hard one call. Liverpool do just edge the stats, but both teams have been goal machines this season. There is actually value in backing Liverpool, but they do not have a great H2H record against Man City with only 1 win in the last 5 at Anfield. There is no value in backing city. At first glance there does appear to be value in LTD looking at this seasons form and the graded analysis. However, the H2H's do not look good with 6 draws in the last 11 meetings and 4 of the last 5 at Anfield being draws.

I think for this one I will have a small back of the draw at 3.75

I will also lay the HT 0-0 score as 12/12 home matches for Liverpool have had a first half goal and 11/12 of City's away matches have had a first half goal so the odds should be around 24 and they are 4.2