Man City Vs Southampton

Man City's last 18 matches reads (W14D3L1). They have scored in 16/18 and conceded in 10/18. They have scored 46 goals and conceded 16 goals
Southampton's last 18 matches reads (W7D5L6). They have scored in 16/18 and conceded in 12/18. They have scored 31 goals and conceded 27 goals.
Man City's last 6 matches reads (W4D2L0). They have scored in 5/6 and conceded in 1/6. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 1 goal
Southampton's last 6 matches reads (W3D0L3). They have scored in 5/6 and conceded in 4/6. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 11 goals.
Man City's last 12 home matches reads (W11D0L1). They have scored in 11/12 and conceded in 6/12. They have scored 42 goals and conceded 9 goals.
Southampton's last 12 away matches reads (W4D3L5). They have scored in 11/12 and conceded in 8/12. They have scored 17 goals and conceded 17 goals.
Man City have the 3rd best home record in the league with only 1 loss in 14 matches.
Man City have won 5/6 at home and lost 1. They have scored in 5/6 and conceded in 3/6. They have scored 13 goals and conceded 4 goals.
Southampton have won 3/6 away from home, drew 1 and lost 2. They have scored in 6/6 and conceded in 3/6. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 8 goals.

The graded analysis for Man City reads (W12D0L1). They have scored in 13/13 and conceded in 8/13. They have scored 34 goals and conceded 13 goals.
The graded analysis for Southampton reads (W0D2L5). They have scored in 6/7 and conceded in 7/7. They have scored 8 goals and conceded 19 goals

The last 11H2H's read H4D2A5
 At Man City reads H2D0A3

However, Southampton have not won at Man City since 2003/2004. Man City have won the last 2 at home to Southampton in the league and the last 3 in all competitions.

There is value in LTD in this one, as I think it should be around 8.0 and it is currently 6.2. However, I cannot LTD with them odds. I will hope Southampton can keep it tight for a while and then maybe LTD at 4.0, but I am not optimistic.

There is value in laying the HT 0-0 at 4.6, as I have it at 6.0. However, again it is a little high, I will wait for 4.0 and then look to Lay the HT 0-0