Wigan Vs Leeds

The early kick-off in the championship today pits promotion chasing Wigan against turmoil Leeds.
Every season everybody thinks Leeds will get promoted or at least reach the play-offs, and it doesn't happen. Mainly because of disruptions off the pitch. Once again that is what is happening this season.

Wigan on the other hand are going well considering they had Europa league commitments earlier in the season and are in the semi-final of the FA cup, which they won last season. Wigan have not won in the last 3, but they were tough fixtures against QPR, Bolton and Leicester. Let's have a look at some stats

Wigan's last 18 matches reads (W10D5L3). They have scored in 13/18 and conceded in 11/18. They have scored 29 goals and conceded 16 goals.
Leeds last 18 matches reads (W3D4L11). They have scored in 13/18 and conceded in 17/18. They have scored 20 goals and conceded 36 goals.
Wigan's last 6 matches reads (W2D3L1). They have scored in 5/6 and conceded inn 6/6. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 9 goals.
Leeds last 6 matches reads (W1D0L5). They have scored in 5/6 and conceded in 6/6. They have scored 7 goals and conceded 14 goals.
Wigan's last 12 home matches reads (W6D4L2). They have scored in 9/12 and conceded in 7/12. They have scored 19 goals and conceded 13 goals.
Leeds last 12 away matches reads (W3D3L6). They have scored in 8/12 and conceded in 10/12. They have scored 14 goals and conceded 21 goals.

Wigan have only lost 2 home matches all season and Leeds have only won 5 away all season.

 Not really enough graded analysis for this one as this is Wigan's first year in the Championship for a while.

Also there is only 1 H2H in the last 10 years in the league, which was at Leeds earlier this season.

All the stats point to a Wigan win here and Leeds don't really have anything to play for and are in turmoil. However, I think the LTD odds of 4.5 are a bit too high for me considering that 4 of the last 10 Wigan matches at home have been draws and 3 of the last 10 away matches for Leeds have been a draw.

I think I will wait and see how the game starts. If it is still 0-0 after 20-25 minutes and the odds are around 3.5. I might LTD in this one.