15th January 2012

1:30pm Newcastle Vs QPR

The first game of the Sunday double bill is Newcastle Vs QPR. The main questions we need to ask ourselves today are?

How will Newcastle cope without Demba Ba? He has scored 15 of Newcastle’s 29 goals this season in the Premiership.

How will Newcastle cope without Tiote in midfield?

Will the new manager of QPR, Mark Hughes, get an instant response from his players in his first game in charge. Can he sprinkle the magic, like Martin O’Neil has done at Sunderland.

Let’s have a look at some stats.

Overall Form

Newcastle have won 9 of their 20 matches this season. They have drawn 6 and lost 5. They have scored 29 goals (1.45gpg) and conceded 25 (1.25gpg). They have kept 7 clean sheets and scored in 16 of the 20 matches. 7 of their last 10 matches have been  over 2.5 goals.

QPR have won 4 of their 20 matches this season. They have drawn 5 and lost 11. They have scored 19 goals (0.95gpg) and conceded 35 (1.75gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 13 of the 20 matches. 5 of their last 10 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

Current Form

Newcastle have won 2 of their last 6 matches, drawing 1 and losing 3. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg) and conceded 10 (1.67gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.

QPR have won 0 of their last 6 matches, drawing 1 and losing 5. They have scored 4 goals (0.67gpg) and conceded 10 (1.67gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in 3 of the 6 matches.

Home Vs Away Form

Newcastle have won 3 of their last 6 home games, drawing 1 and losing 2. They have scored 8 goals (1.33gpg) and conceded 7 (1.17gpg). They have kept 4 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches. 4 of the 6 games have been over 2.5 goals.

QPR have won 1 of their last 6 away matches, drawing 1 and losing 4. They have scored 6 goal (1gpg) and conceded 10 (1.67gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches. 3 of the 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals.

H2H’s

Newcastle have won 5 of the last 11 meetings between the sides, but they have only won 2 at home. QPR have won 4 of the last 11 meetings, with two of them coming away from home. QPR have not won any of the last 5 meetings, with 3 Newcastle wins and 2 draw.

Today the success rate for the game is 78%. This equates to a 66% chance of a Newcastle win and 24% chance of a draw and a 10% chance of a QPR win. The goal expectancy for the match is 3.02.

The % chance of 0 goals is 4.6%

The % chance of the home team scoring 1^st is 69%

Verdict

I think Demba Ba and Tiote will be a big miss for Newcastle over the coming weeks. However, QPR have only kept 4 clean sheets all season and none on their travels. With Newcastle having home advantage, I still think they will have enough to win this match. I think it will be a close game, as the QPR players will respond to Mark Hughes, but it maybe too soon for him to exert his influence just yet. I think 1-0 or 2-0 to Newcastle, they don’t normally concede many goals. I think I will lay the draw and lay over 2.5 goals.

Happy Trading