The battle for Fourth

Liverpool Vs Arsenal

The early kick-off in the premiership today is Liverpool Vs Arsenal. Both teams are on a high, Liverpool after winning the Carling Cup and Arsenal after thrashing Spurs 5-2 and coming from 0-2 down. So which team can push on for that elusive fourth spot? Let’s have a look at the stats.

As usual let’s start with the success rates and WOG’s.

As we can see the success rate for the whole season is very even. However, if we look at the home vs. away success rate, Liverpool have a significant advantage, indeed Liverpool are undefeated at home this season, and Arsenal’s away record is poor. However, if we look at the home vs. away winning percentage, it is very low for both teams, so could this game be a draw? Home vs. away WOG is in significantly in Liverpool’s favour as is the WOG% in the 1^st half, the 2^nd half WOG% is more even

As we can see from the above chart, Arsenal average more goals per game than Liverpool, almost double. However, Arsenal concede more per game than Liverpool. Also Liverpool games tend to contain far less goals than Arsenal matches, overall and home vs. away matches.

Looking at clean sheets (CS), Liverpool have the most, indeed Liverpool have the 2^nd best defence in the league, only Man City have a better defence. Liverpool also have the 2^nd best home defence. Arsenal have the 5^th worst away defence in the league. Then if we look at failed to score (FTS), Arsenal have a far better record and have scored in most of their games, Liverpool in the last 12 and 6 matches have FTS in about 50% of their games.

So looking at overall and current form for the season we can see that Arsenal have more wins, less draws but they do have more losses. Looking at the last 6 matches, Arsenal have the better form than Liverpool. Looking at the Home Vs Away form, Liverpool have the better stats, but have drawn far too many games, and Arsenal have lost far too many games. Wins, are fairly even.

If we look at the H2H’s, Liverpool have only won 2 of the last 11 meetings. However, Arsenal have only won 3 of the last 11 matches. At Anfield, Liverpool have only won 1 of the last 5, and Arsenal have only won 1 of the last 5 matches. 

Verdict:- I think this game could be a draw. I have checked the team sheets and Agger is missing for Liverpool, which means Carragher starts, in my opinion he is old and sluggish and makes more mistakes these days. Also Gerrard is missing. Van Persie starts for Arsenal and Vermaelen is fit, which is a huge plus. I can see both teams scoring in this one, but Liverpool at home this season have had lots of possession with no end product, they tend to huff and puff and draw lots of games. Therefore, I think I will lay Liverpool in this game.