SPL Action

Aberdeen Vs Celtic

The early kick-off in the Scottish SPL pits Aberdeen against high flying Celtic. Celtic have already won the league, bar the shouting, as Rangers have been docked 10 pts and lie 20pts behind Celtic, so can Celtic keep the motivation going against a well organised Aberdeen side who are tight defensively. Let’s have a look at the stats.

Aberdeen are currently 7^th in the SPL with 32pts, Celtic are top of the table with 74pts.

Looking at the success rates and WOG, we can clearly see that Celtic are ahead in every department, apart from the 1^st Half WOG, were both teams have similar records. No surprises yet. 

If we now look at goals scored per game (GPG) we can see that Celtic are once again far superior, typically Celtic score double the goals per game that Aberdeen do. Aberdeen do have a very good record defensively conceding on average 1 goal per game, indeed in the last 12 and 6 matches, Aberdeen have conceded less than 1 goal per game. However, Celtic’s defence is even better, with no goals conceded in the last 6 matches, and only 0.17 in the last 12 matches. If we examine the total goals in both team’s matches and their respect home and away matches, we can see that Aberdeen’s games normally contain less goals. Indeed Aberdeen are joint top of the SPL with fewest total goals in their matches, they also have the 3^rd best defence in the SPL, only Celtic and Rangers have a better defence. Also Aberdeen’s home matches contain the fewest goals of any ground over the whole season, this suggests the game could be a low scoring one, and maybe tight.

Looking at the clean sheets (CS), once again Celtic are significantly ahead, although Aberdeen’s record in the last 12 and 6 matches is by no means poor. Looking at the fail to score (FTS) percentages, Aberdeen have a very high percentage when compared to Celtic, but to be fair most teams do. Celtic have scored in every one of the last 12 matches.

If we look at overall form for the season and current form, Celtic come out on top once again. Also if we look at home vs. away form, again Celtic come out on top

Aberdeen Score more 1^st half goals in their home games than Celtic do in their away games and they also conceded less goals at home in the 1^st half than Celtic do in the 1^st half of their away games.

Finally if we look at home and away team scoring we can see that Celtic score in 92.8% of their away games whilst Aberdeen only score in 64.3% of their home games. Celtic score a higher percentage of their goals in the 2^nd half, actually the 1^st half percentages are fairly even.

If we look at the H2H’s, Celtic have won 10 of the last 12 league games, Aberdeen have only won 1. Also Celtic have won 4 of the last 6 matches at Aberdeen.

Verdict:- Even though Celtic are 20pts ahead of Rangers, I cannot see complacency setting in. All the stats point to a Celtic win, and I see no reason why this would not be the case. However, having said that Aberdeen have a very good defence and the total number of goals scored at Aberdeen is the lowest in the league. Also earlier in the season Celtic only managed a narrow 1-0 win at Aberdeen. Therefore I think I will lay over 2.5 goals for the 1^st 15-20 minutes of the game for 2.5% of bank, if an early goal goes in I will lay over 2.5 goals with another 2.5% of bank. I would also like to lay the draw, but not from the beginning, as the game maybe tight and Celtic may not score until the second half. So I will see how the first 15-20 minutes of the match proceeds and then look to lay the draw. I would prefer to wait for odds of around 3.0