Well the 1st match of tonight’s Europa league action to feature a British team is Ath Bilbao Vs Man Utd. Ath Bilbao have a 3-2 lead after the first leg at Old Trafford. The first leg was an entertaining affair, and I must admit I was impressed with Ath Bilbao. Both teams looked good going forward, but Man Utd’s defence once again looked a bit ragged, and De Gea saved their blushes on several occasions. However, you could argue that Ath Bilbao were a tad fortunate as one of the goals was offside and the other goal came from a debatable free-kick. So what delights does the game have in store for us this evening. Let’s have a look at the stats.
League Form
• Ath Bilbao have only won 4 of their last 10 matches, Man Utd have won 7, and are undefeated in the last 8 and have won the last 4 on the bounce.
• The last 6 matches have seen Ath Bilbao win 2, draw 2 and loss 2, they have scored 12 goals (2gpg) and conceded 9 (1.5gpg). They have also kept 2 clean sheets and scored in all 6.
• The last 6 matches have seen Man Utd win 5, draw 1 and loss 1, they have scored 14 goals (2.58gpg) and conceded 6 (1gpg). They have also kept 2 clean sheets and scored in all 6.
• Looking at Ath Bilbao’s current home form (last 6), they have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 0. They have scored 14 goals (2.33gpg) and conceded 5 (0.83gpg). They have kept 3 clean sheets and scored in all 6.
• Looking at Man Utd’s current away form (last 6), they have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 1. They have scored 15 goals (2.5gpg) and conceded 9 (1.5gpg). They have only kept 1 clean sheet and have scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
• You could argue that Man Utd’s last 6 away matches have been harder than Ath Bilbao’s last 6 home games. Man Utd have played spurs, Chelsea, Arsenal and Newcastle, Norwich and Fulham, all top 10 teams. Whereas Ath Bilbao have played Sociedad, Malaga, Espanol, Levante Zargoza and Santander, 3 bottom half teams and three top half teams.
Europe Form (Including Champions League)
• Ath Bilbao have Won 6, Drawn 1 and lost 2 so far this season. They have scored 16 goals (1.78gpg) and conceded 12 goals (1.33gpg). Their home form has been very good, winning 3 and drawing 1.
• Man Utd have Won 3, Drawn 3 and lost 3 so far this season. They have scored 16 goals (1.77gpg) and conceded 13 goals (1.44gpg). Their away form has yielded 2 Wins, 1 Draw and 1 loss.
General Stats
• In the league when looking at home vs. away form Ath Bilbao score 1st 84% of the time compared to Man Utd’s 78.6%.
• A goal is scored in 92.5% of both teams matches.
• A goal is scored home vs. away in 92.5% of both teams matches.
• A goal scored in the 1st half home vs. away occurs 81% of the time.
• A goal scored in the 2nd half home vs. away occurs 85% of the time.
• Ath Bilbao have scored in 92% of their home matches and Man Utd have scored in 92.8% of their away matches.
• Ath Bilbao have scored in the 1st half of their home matches 61.5% of the time and Man Utd have scored in the 1st half of their away matches 86% of the time.
• Ath Bilbao have scored in the 2nd half of their home matches 46% of the time and Man Utd have scored in the 2nd half of their away matches 64% of the time.
• The 1st goal of the match is scored <30mins in 61% of Ath Bilbao’s home matches and 64% of Man Utd’s away matches.
• 1st goal of the match occurring before 68 mins home vs. away is 92.6%.
• Ath Bilbao score the 1st goal at home before 68mins 76.9% of the time compared to Man Utd’s 78.5% of the time away from home.
• Ath Bilbao are leading in home matches 77% of the time before 68mins, compared to Man Utd’s 78.5% of the time away from home.
• Ath Bilbao’s home matches contain a goal after 75mins 46% of time.
• Man Utd’s away matches contain a goal after 75mins 42% of time.
• Home vs Away 1 or more goals occurs 98% of the time.
• Home vs. Away over 1.5 goals occurs 85% of the time.
• Home vs. Away over 2.5 goals occurs 59% of the time.
Verdict:- This is a tough one to call, and I think it may ultimately come down to which team Alex Ferguson decides to field. Ath Bilbao looked very good last week and don’t really play like a typical Spanish team. They play like an English side, closing players down and with a fast tempo. Man Utd, may just have one eye on the premiership, They went top for the first time last weekend, after Man City lost to Swansea, and I don’t think they will want to risk injuries or a slip up. The question, I have to ask myself is; can Ath Bilbao play like they did at Old Trafford? Can they keep that level up? I am not so sure. If Man Utd field a strong team, coupled with the fact that their away form is Europe has been good in recent years, I think Man UtdAth Bilbao could win comfortably.
Strategies I will be looking at:-
• Odds are close so I will LTD for 5% of bank, stop loss 1.7.
• If I can back over 1.5 goals for >1.5 I will for 2.5% of bank
• If 0-0 with 25 mins to go I will lay the current score.
• If 1-0 to Ath Bilbao with 25-30 mins to go I will lay the current score.
• If 2-0 to Ath Bilbao with 25-30 mins to go I will lay the current score
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