Spurs Vs Bolton

This is the postponed FA Cup match from over a week ago after the serious injury to Muamba. Since that match Spurs managed to snatch a late point against Stoke at home and drew away against Chelsea. Bolton managed a win over Blackburn. So who is going to progress to the semi-finals to meet Chelsea. Let’s have a look at the stats.

League Form
•    The last 10 matches have seen Spurs Win 2, draw 4 and lose 4. They have not won in the last 5 matches. Their last two matches have been draws.
•    The last 10 matches have seen Bolton Win 4, draw 1 and lose 5. They have won the last two matches, but have only won 2 in the last 7 matches.
•    Looking at the current form (last 6), Spurs have won 1,drawn 2 and lost 3. They have scored 9 goals (1.5gpg) and conceded 10 goals (1.67gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
•    Looking at the current form (last 6), Bolton have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 4. They have scored 5 goals (0.83gpg) and conceded 11 goals (1.83gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in 3 of the 6 matches.
•    Looking at the current home form (last 6), Spurs have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 1. They have scored 13 goals (2.17gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1.0gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in all 6 matches.
•    Looking at the current away form (last 6). Bolton have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 4. They have scored 4 goals (0.67gpg) and conceded 12 goals (2gpg).They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in 2 of the 6 matches.

FA Cup Form
•    Spurs have played 4 games this season (one replay). They have scored 7 goals (1.75gpg) and conceded 1 goal (0.25gpg).
•    Spurs are 5th in the all-time table for the FA Cup
•    Bolton have played 4 games this season (one replay). They have scored 8 goals (2gpg) and conceded 3 goals (0.75gpg)
•    Bolton are 14th in the all-time table for the FA Cup
•    Last 5 seasons, Spurs have gotten to the 4th Rd, Semi-final, 4th Rd, 4th Rd, 6th Rd.  They have lost 2 Man Utd twice and Chelsea once. Also lost to Portsmouth and Fulham
•    Last 5 seasons, Bolton have gotten to the Semi-Final, 5th Rd, 4th Rd, 3rd Rd, 3rd Rd, 4th Rd.

H2H’s
•    Last 11 matches in all competition. Spurs have won 5. Bolton have won 2 and there has been 4 draws. At Spurs there has been 5 wins out of the last 6, with 1 draw. Bolton have not won.

General Stats
•    In Spurs home matches, both teams score 53% of the time. In Bolton’s away matches, both teams score 44% of the time.
•    Spurs score 1st 73% of the time at home. Bolton score 1st 21% of the time away from home.
•    53% of the time there is over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half of Spurs home matches. 64% of the time there is over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half of Bolton’s away matches.
•    100% of Spurs home matches have a goal. 100% of Bolton’s away matches have a goal.
•    80% of Spurs home matches have a goal in the 1st half. 64% of Bolton’s away matches have a goal in the 1st half.
•    87% of Spurs home matches have a goal in the 2nd half. 92% of Bolton’s away matches have a goal in the 2nd half.
•    Spurs keep 47% clean sheet at home compared to 7% for Bolton away.
•    Spurs have scored in every home game. Bolton have scored in 50% of their away matches.
•    Spurs have scored in the 1st half of their home matches 60% of the time. Bolton have scored in the 1st half of their away matches 29% of the time.
•    Spurs have scored in the 2nd half of their home matches 87% of the time. Bolton have scored in the 2nd half of their away matches 36% of the time
•    30% of the time there is a goal in the 1st 15 mins of Spurs home matches and Bolton’s away matches.
•    93% of the time the 1st goals is scored before 68 mins in Spurs home matches. 93% of the time the 1st goal is scored before 68 mins in Bolton’s away matches.
•    73% of the time Spurs score the 1st goal before 68mins at home. 21% of the time Bolton score the 1st goal before 68 mins away.
•    73% of the time Spurs are leading at home before 68 mins. 21% of the time Bolton are leading away before 68 mins.
•    33% of Spurs home matches have a goal in the last 15mins. 65% of Bolton’s away matches have a goal in the last 15 mins.
•    100% of Spurs home matches and Bolton’s away matches have 1 goal or more
•    87% of Spurs home matches and 100% of Bolton’s away matches have over 1.5 goals.
•    53% of Spurs home matches and 79% of Bolton’s away matches have over 2.5 goals.

Verdict:- Spurs are in a poor run of form recently, Bolton have won their last two matches, but they were both at home. Their away form this season has been poor. All the stats, point to a Spurs win, even though they have not picked up many points recently, they have played well and have had some hard fixtures (Man Utd, Chelsea and Arsenal). The stats suggest there could be an early goal, so I don’t think I will risk laying over 2.5 goals. The odds for laying the draw from the start are too high and backing Spurs from the start is too low. So, hopefully, Bolton can frustrate Spurs for the 1st 20mins of the match, so we can get a better price.