The Friday night Dutch match, pits Utrecht, who are 14th, against Excelsior, who are 2nd from bottom. Excelsior have no wins away from home in the league this season and Utrecht have only lost 2 home matches in the league this season and one of those was against FC Twente. So is this a home banker, let’s have a look at the stats.
League Form
• The last 10 matches have seen Utrecht win 3, draw 4 and lose 3. They have only picked up 5pts in the last 5 matches.
• The last 10 matches have seen Excelsior win 3, draw 1 and lose 6. They have only picked up 3pts in the last 5 matches.
• Looking at the current form (last 6), Utrecht have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 2. They have scored 8 goal (1.33gpg) and conceded 6 goals (1gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
• Looking at the current form (last 6), Excelsior have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 4. They have scored 6 goals (1gpg) and conceded 12 goals (2gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in 4 of the 6 matches.
• Looking at the opposition in the last 6 matches for both teams, Utrecht have played more higher graded teams than Excelsior and picked up more points.
• Looking at current home form (last 6), Utrecht have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 0. They have scored 10 goals (1.67gpg) and conceded 5 goals (0.83gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 5 of the 6 matches.
• Looking at current away form (last 6). Excelsior have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 5. They have scored 3 goals (0.5gpg) and conceded 18 goals (3gpg). They have kept 0 clean sheets and scored in 2 of the 6 matches.
H2H’s
• In the last 9 league meetings. Utrecht have won 6, Excelsior have won 1 and there have been 2 draws.
• In the last 4 league meetings at Utrecht, there has been 3 wins for Utrecht and 1 draw, with no wins for Excelsior.
• The last 9 league meetings have yielded over 2.5 goals in 4 of the 9, and 7 of the 9 have yielded over 1.5 goals.
• The last 4 league meetings at Utrecht have yielded over 2.5 goals in 2 of the 4, and 3 of the 4 have yielded over 2.5 goals.
General Stats
• Both teams score in Utrecht’s home matches 77% of the time compared to 39% of the time for Excelsior’s away matches.
• Utrecht score 1st at home 38% of the time compared to 7.7% of the time for Excelsior away from home.
• 61.5% of Utrecht’s home matches have over 1.5 goals in the 1st half compared to 39% of Excelsior’s away matches.
• 70% of Utrecht’s home matches have over 1.5 goals in the 2nd half compared to 54% of Excelsior’s away matches.
• A goal is scored in 92% of Utrecht’s home matches compared to 92% of the time for Excelsior’s away matches.
• A goal is scored in the 1st half of Utrecht’s home matches 85% of the time compared to 77% of the time for Excelsior’s away matches.
• A goal is scored in the 2nd half of Utrecht’s home matches 77% of the time compared to 85% of the time for Excelsior’s away matches.
• Utrecht keep 23% clean sheets at home compared to 7.7% for Excelsior away.
• Utrecht have scored in 92% of their home matches compared to 38% for Excelsior’s away matches.
• Utrecht have scored in the 1st half at home 62% of the time compared to 23% of the time for Excelsior’s away matches.
• Utrecht have scored in the 2nd half at home 77% of the time compared to 23% of the time for Excelsior’s away matches.
• In the 1st 15 mins of Utrecht’s home matches there is a goal 46% of the time compared to 23% for Excelsior away from home.
• 93% of Utrecht’s home matches have the 1st goal before 68mins compared to 85% for Excelsior away from home.
• Utrecht score the 1st goal of the game at home before 68mins 38% of the time, compared to 7.7% of the time for Excelsior away from home.
• Utrecht are leading before 68 mins at home 62% of the time compared to 7.7% of the time for Excelsior.
• 92.3% of Utrecht’s home matches and 92.3% of Excelsior’s away matches contain 1 goal or more.
• 92% of Utrecht’s home matches and 85% of Excelsior’s away matches contain over 1.5 goals.
• 77% of Utrecht’s home matches and 46% of Excelsior’s away matches contain over 2.5 goals.
Verdict:- Both teams are near the bottom of the table, but Excelsior really are woeful and the stats suggest a home win, or that at least they will score the 1st goal and be ahead in the match. Laying the draw is possible as the odds are just slightly higher than 5. We could wait for the 1st 15-20 mins for lower odds or higher odds on backing Utrecht. The odds are about right for 2.5 goals and 1.5 goals. However, if there is no early goal I may look to back over 1.5 goals.
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