Italy Vs Germany

So after a poor semi-final last night, we turn our attention to tonight’s semi-final, Italy Vs Germany. As I write this, Germany are just odds on favourites. So is the favouritism justified? Let’s have a look at the stats?

Italy’s current form in the tournament reads, P4W2D2L0, one of the wins was via a penalty shoot-out. They have scored 4 goals (1gpg) and conceded 2 goals (0.5gpg). They have kept 2 clean sheets and scored in 3 of the 4 matches. None of their 4 matches so far in the competition have been over 2.5 goals. If we take a look at their qualifying campaign, it reads P10W8D2L0. They scored 20 goals (2gpg) and conceded 2 goals (0.2gpg). They kept 8 clean sheets and have scored in 9 of their 10 matches.

Germany’s current form in the tournament reads, P4W4D0L0, they are the only team in the tournament that have won every match. They have scored 9 goals (2.25gpg) and conceded 4 goals (1gpg). They have only kept 1 clean sheet but they have scored in all 4 matches. Three of the 4 matches have been over 2.5 goals. Looking at their qualifying campaign, it reads P10W10D0L0, they have scored 34 goals (3.4gpg) and conceded 7 goals (0.7gpg). They have kept 4 out of 10 clean sheets and scored in all 10 matches.

So the stats at this point suggest Germany. If we look at the H2H’s, they have played each other 5 times, Italy have won 2, Germany have won 0 and there have been 3 draws, two of them being 0-0’s.

So looking at the stats, Germany are the stronger side attacking wise, which is no surprise. However, Italy is the stronger side defensively, again no surprise there. When Italy played England, they dominated the possession and had a hatful of chances, but wasted them; they will not be able to do that in this match against the Germany’s. It could be a tight match again, but I get the feeling that if Italy are going to win this they will have to score at least 2 goals, as I am certain Germany will score at least one, with their attacking options and I just can’t see that happening. I think Germany win this inside the 90 minutes and the score will be 2-1

As I have done for the last couple of matches, I will lay over 2.5 goals for the first 15-20 minutes, as Italy will look to pack the midfield and stop Germany from playing. However, in the end Germany’s quality will tell. The lay the draw odds at present are 3.55, I will wait awhile and see how the match progresses, but anything under 3.0 I will take.