Sunday Matches Part 1

Hi Folks

Here is my summary of the trades I carried out yesterday

Aston Villa Vs Swansea:- I backed under 2.5 goals @1.75 for £10 before kick-off. After around 10 minutes Villa Scored. I then back under 2.5 goals again for another £10 looking to hedge for a small profit at HT if it stayed 1-0. Unfortunately, Swansea scored to make it 1-1 and I had to hedge out for a loss of £10.15

Hull Vs Fulham

Again I backed under 2.5 goals @1.78 for £10 before kick-off. At HT when the score was 0-0 I hedged out for a profit of £4.83

Man City Vs Crystal Palace

I backed over 3.5 goals @2.28 for £5 before kick-off. The game finished 1-0, so a loss of £5. The mistake I made in this match was not checking the team news before kick-off as Man City thought they could just turn up and win and fielded a weak team

Norwich vs Man Utd

I did not LTD in this one from the start. But I LTD in the 2nd half when Man Utd brought Welbeck on. I hedged out for a profit of £4.13

Cardiff Vs Sunderland

I LTD in this one @3.4 for £8.80 and hedged when Cardiff went 2-0 up yielding a profit of £6.69

So for the day I just managed to break even.

Two 1:30pm premiership matches today, here are my thoughts

Everton Vs Southampton

Everton's record in the last 18 matches is W9D7L2. They have scored in 13/18 and conceded in 10/18. They have scored 29 goals and conceded 17 goals.
Southampton's record in the last 18 matches is W7D6L5. They have scored in 15/18 and conceded in 11/18. They have scored 25 goals and conceded 18 goals.
Everton have won 4 of their last 6 matches, only losing 1 (5th best home record)
Southampton have won 1 of their last 6 matches, although that was their last match and ends a terrible run.
Everton at home in the last 12 matches have W8D3L1. They have scored in 9/12 and conceded in 5/12. They have scored 22 goals and conceded 8 goals.
Southampton away in the last 12 matches have W3D5L1. They have scored in 8/12 and conceded in 8/12. They have scored 10 goals and conceded 11 goals.

The last 10 H2H's have yielded 4 draws, but 3 of them draws were at Southampton . Everton have won 5 and Southampton have won 1.
At Everton in the last 5 H2H's, there has been 1 draw and 4 Everton wins.

If we look at the graded analysis Everton have W10D2L2 and have scored in 12/14 matches and conceded in 10/14 matches. They have scored 24 goals and conceded 10 goals
Southampton have W1D1L4 and scored in 4/6 and conceded in 5/6. They have scored 5 goals and conceded 10 goals

Looking at the stats they are in Everton's favour. Everton lost their first home match of the year on Boxing day against Sunderland. However, their goalkeeper was sent off and they were down to 10 men for 70 minutes. They lost 0-1. Southampton have been on a terrible run of late with 6 consecutive defeats until Boxing day when they beat Cardiff 3-0.

I still fancy Everton in this one, However, the odds are just about right, so I can't back Everton. There is value in laying Southampton but the odds are a little too high. There is no value in LTD. If Southampton score 1st and early in the match I might lay them.

Overs/Unders

6/10 of the H2H's have been under 2.5 goals and the last 12 home matches for Everton have yielded 7/12 under 2.5 goals. The last 12 away matches for Southampton have yielded 10/12 under 2.5 goals.
There does appear to be some value here in backing under 2.5 goals.

 I will back under 2.5 goals @2.06 for £10 and look to hedge at HT

Newcastle Vs Arsenal

Newcastle's record in the last 18 matches is W10D3L5. They have scored in 15/18 and conceded in 12/18. They have scored 29 goals and conceded 23 goals.
Arsenal's record in the last 18 matches is W12D3L3. They have scored in 16/18 and conceded in 11/18. They have scored 36 goals and conceded 18 goals.
Newcastle have lost 1 of their last 6 matches, winning 4
Arsenal have lost 1 of their last 6 matches, winning 3
Arsenal have the best away record in the league
Newcastle's home form in the last 12 matches is W5D3L4. They have scored in 8/12 and conceded in 9/12. They have scored 17 goals and conceded 19 goals.
Arsenal's Away form in the last 12 matches is W9D1L2. They have scored in 11/12 and conceded in 7/12. They have scored 23 goals and conceded 12 goals.

The last 10 H2H's have yielded 3 draws with only one Newcastle win. There has been 3 draws in the last 5 matches at Newcastle. Since 2000 there has been 8 draws in 24 league matches and at Newcastle there has been 7 draws in 12 matches.

If we look at the graded analysis Newcastle are W3D1L5. They have scored in 4/9 and conceded in 6/9. They have scored 9 goals and conceded 14 goals. Arsenal have W5D1L2. They have scored in 8/8 and conceded in 5/8. They have scored 11 goals and conceded 7 goals.

I would love to LTD in this one as most of the Stats are in Arsenal's favour and there is value, even though Newcastle have been going along nicely. The only matches Arsenal have really come unstuck upon on the road was against Man City and Man Utd. However, I can't LTD when over 50% of matches against Newcastle at Newcastle have been a draw. So I will have to leave this one alone


No value in over/under markets