Valenica Vs Ath Madrid

Valenica Vs Ath Madrid

Valencia's last 17 matches read W6D2L9. They have scored in 16/17 matches and conceded in 12/17 matches. They have scored 23 goals and conceded 29 goals.
Ath Madrid's last 17 matches read W15D1L1. They have scored in 16/17 matches and conceded in 9/17 matches. They have scored 46 goals and conceded 11 goals.
Valencia's have won 2 of the last 6, drawing 1 and losing 3.
Ath Madrid have won 5 of the last 6, drawing 1 and losing 0.
Valencia's home form this season is average W4D1L4
Ath Madrid have the 3rd best away form this season with W6D1L1
Valenica's last 12 home matches read W7D1L4. They have scored in 12/12 matches and conceded in 7/12 matches. They have scored 26 goals and conceded 14 goals.
Ath Madrid's last 12 away matches read W9D2L1. They have scored in 10/12 matches and conceded in 7/12 matches. They have scored 20 goals and concede 7 goals.

The last 15 H2H's read H4D6A5. 40% Draws
At Valencia H3D3A1
Indeed since 1999/2000 season P31H12D10A9. 32% Draws
At Valencia H8D5A2.

The graded analysis for Valencia reads W2D2L4. They have scored in 7/8 matches and conceded in 6/8 matches. They have scored 12 goals and conceded 17 goals.
Ath Madrid's graded analysis reads W2D0L6. They have scored in 4/8 matches and conceded in 6/8 matches. They have scored 4 goals and conceded 18 goals.

There does appear to be value in LTD, but I can't take it on with 40% of the H2H's being draws and 32% draws at Valencia. Most of the stats here point to an Ath Madrid win. However, the H2H's will not let me back Ath Madrd. I know Valencia have been poor this season and Ath Madrid have been outstanding, but Ath Madrids record at Valencia is not good.

I think I will risk a small trade here by laying Ath Madrid. David Villa is on the bench and hopefully players will have one eye on the Barcelona match at the weekend.

I will Lay Ath Madrid @2.18 for £7.90 and look to exit if Valencia are ahead.

There is also some value in laying the HT score here.

I will also lay the HT score if less than 5.0, risking 2.5% of my bank

The game was 0-0 until around the 72 minute mark. The odds for Ath Madird were 4.1 and I was looking to exit my Lay trade @4.4. Ath Madrid scored and I thought the trade was lost. However, Valencia got the deserved equaliser in the last minute of stoppage time and I made a profit of £7.50

The HT score lay was carried out @3.9, and a profit of £3.70 was secured when Ath Madrid took the lead